Monsoon 2008 to hit Kerala early!
May 15th, 2008
Indian meteorological department is predicting an early Monsoon in Kerala. According to their prediction Monsoon may start on 28th May, four days ahead of usual date.
With strengthening and deepening of monsoon winds and widespread rainfall activity, southwest monsoon advanced into southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and north Andaman Sea on 12 May, almost 8 days in advance. As on 13 May, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat 5.0ºN Long 86.0ºE, Lat 8.0ºN Long 87.0ºE, Lat 10.0ºN Long 89.0ºE, Lat 12.0ºN Long 91.0ºE, Maya Bandar, Lat 14.0ºN Long 95.0ºE and Lat 15.0ºN Long 98.0ºE.
This year summer was unusual with plenty of rains in Kerala. The early monsoon is going to bring relief to farmers across India as agriculture is heavily dependent on it. It will also probably end the panic which has been fuelling food price rise.
As you can see from the satellite picture, monsoon has already advanced to Andaman Nicobar islands and is gaining steam. The only problem is that IMD is also putting an estimate error of ± 4 days 
Following is the predicted monsoon progression given by IMD. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall expected is 99% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. The Long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm.
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